Fed Changes Its Inflation Stance
Published Friday, December 17, 2021 at: 7:36 PM EST
The Federal Reserve has abandoned its “inflation is transitory” stance and says inflation is “persistent.” Stocks lost 2% from last week’s all-time closing high.
The change in Fed policy is illustrated in this chart by Fritz Meyer, an independent economist. The Fed had been predicting inflation would peak at 4.1%. But its inflation benchmark, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator, shot past 4.1% to 5% in October.
On Wednesday, at a press conference, the Fed chief admitted inflation has been more persistent than expected and said the Fed now expects inflation to peak at between 5.3% and 5.4%, shown in the dotted gray lines in the chart above. The peak will occur in the first quarter of 2022, according to the Fed forecast, and then collapse to 3% or less in the second quarter of 2022.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed Friday at 4,620.64. The index lost -1% from Thursday and -2% from last week, when it closed at an all-time high. The index is up +69.5% from the March 23, 2020, bear market low.
Nothing contained herein is to be considered a solicitation, research material, an investment recommendation, or advice of any kind, and it is subject to change without notice. Any investments or strategies referenced herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Product suitability must be independently determined for each individual investor. Tax advice always depends on your particular personal situation and preferences. You should consult the appropriate financial professional regarding your specific circumstances. The material represents an assessment of financial, economic and tax law at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Advisor Products and is not intended as legal or investment advice.
- Ending Inflation Will Take Months
- Economists Predict Lackluster 4Q22 Growth; Fed Algorithm Predicts 4.3%
- Amid Darkening News, Positive Economic Signs
- Stocks Soared This Past Week But Economic Pain Is Still Ahead
- Factors Blurring The Likelihood Of A Recession
- Weekly Investor Update
- Stocks Rose 4.7% This Past Week, Amid A Bear Market
- 105 Years Ago In Investing: Conditions Were Much The Same As Today
- A Timely Reminder Of Why You Take Stock Risk
- Good And Bad Financial News: Weekly Investment Update
- A Financial And Tax Planning Strategy For This Week's Stock Market Plunge
- Having Trouble Tuning Out The Bad Financial Economic News?
- A Key Signal Of Strength At A Pivotal Moment In Economic History
- Despite Strong Jobs Report, Stocks Declined Last Week
- The Fed Risks A Recession To End Inflation, As Expected
- Stocks Snap Four-Week Win Streak
- Stocks Have Soared Lately, But What Should You Expect Near And Long-Term?
- Investing In An Economy Beset By Multiple Anomalies
- Despite Bad Economic News, Stocks Rose 4% In The Week Ended July 29, 2022
- Amid Bad Data Releases, Leading Economists Predict No Recession
- Good News: Real Retail Sales Dropped Fractionally In The Past Year
- Financial Economic News Analysis
- The Good News Is All This Bad News
- Four Signs A Recession Could Be Short And Shallow